Comments on The Minority Report: A brief update...

At the end of the day then, we're probably not as ...

2006-12-01T13:12:00.000-08:00

At the end of the day then, we're probably not as far apart as originally thought. But I will add that while I cannot speak for Florida Republicans in particular, my experience is that it is certainly not out of the realm of possibility that up to 1/3 of Republicans, particularly those on the losing end of a nasty primary (and recall that Vern B only got 32% of the vote in the win), are not above shooting themselves in the head over it come time for the general. As always, YMMV.

Let me one-up your prediction...

Buchanan will lose a very close, very nasty primary in 2008 and the candidate who's party is the winner of the Presidential election (assuming R or D) will carry this district.

If it's a Democrat, s/he'll be a one-termer - two at the most (think CT-2 in reverse). If it's a Republican, the seat probably stays (R) until the dope decides to run for higher office.

In other words, this will all be lots and lots of bandwidth spilled over very, very little.

But hey, it's fun! Right?

Riiiiiiiiiiight...

I realized after I posted my comment that it would...

2006-12-01T12:21:00.000-08:00

I realized after I posted my comment that it would have been more helpful if I explained how I got to 1 out of 3 Republicans casting an undervote.

I looked on the FL Sec of State's webpage and found out that 65,000 Sarasota County Republicans voted in the 2006 Republican primary. Of those 21,000 voted for Buchanan so that leaves 44,000 Republicans who would care enough about the Primary to cast a protest vote about it. So 15,000 undervotes out of the 44,000 who might register a protest vote is 34%

I realize those numbers are all estimates in regard to the general election but I think they are pretty reasonable estimates.

My prediction about the whole thing:

The audit will find that human error and/or a poor ballot layout caused the large undervote. As a result no revote will happen and Buchanan will be sworn in in January.

Final follow-up to Blue...If I've done the math ba...

2006-12-01T12:02:00.000-08:00

Final follow-up to Blue...

If I've done the math based on CNN's election results, the undervote in Sarasota in 2004 - a presidential election year with a relatively popular GOP incumbent (at least in her district) and the same voting machines and a ballot screen all to itself (unlike this year when FL-13 appeared at the bottom of the screen for another race) - was about 6.5%. Oddly enough, that's almost precisely half the percentage in 2006.

But given that Buchanan underperformed Crist in Sarasota by about 17.5K votes (while only getting about 250 more votes than Harris) while Jennings actually outperformed Davis by 5000 votes, it seems entirely plausible the overwhelming majority of the "undervote" came from the "I'm going to teach them a lesson by blowing my own head off" wing of the GOP.

They (your average "undervote") voted for Nelson, then voted for Crist, then decided they didn't like either of their choices for House (nasty primary, didn't like Jennings, whatever) and left it blank. How is that so "unlikely"?

Hey BN - I probably should have recognized your ha...

2006-12-01T11:14:00.000-08:00

Hey BN - I probably should have recognized your handiwork.

1) Sez you.

2) Read the text of her complaint.

3) Well no, I suspect to "most people" this is all inside baseball and (to the extent anyone is paying attention) looks more like sour grapes than anything else.

But it does beg repeating the seminal question of my original piece: can a Democrat ever lose a close election without immediately going from zero to "evidence of some kind of problem, whether fraud, mechanical or otherwise"?

I suspect no. I've seen very, very little to convince me otherwise.

Have fun - I'm done with this.

I posted the anonymous comment earlier. To answer...

2006-12-01T09:05:00.000-08:00

I posted the anonymous comment earlier.

To answer your questions:

1) That wouldn't account for such a high undervote. Almost 1 in 3 Republican voters in Sarasota country would have had to have chosen not to vote in order for the number to reach 18,000. While it is possible it isn't likely.

2) I don't remember Ms. Jennings asking to be declared the winner. I may have missed it, but from what I read/heard she has been asking for an audit and/or a revote and not to be declared the winner.

Also, you say there is no evidence of fraud or mechanical problems but that isn't true. You may be able to explain away a 13% undervote, but to most people that is evidence of some kind of problem, whether fraud, mechanical or otherwise.

Hey anonymous...1) Since the candidates in the GOP...

2006-12-01T08:29:00.000-08:00

Hey anonymous...

1) Since the candidates in the GOP Primary were, in fact, concentrated in Sarasota, doesn't it stand to reason they might be disproporionately pissed at the eventual winner of the very nasty GOP primary?

2) Does not the fact that the principal remedy sought by Ms. Jennings and her supporters - that she, who has not won the count of any of the subsequent recounts and with no evidence of fraud or mechanical problems yet in evidence, be declared the winner of the election - provide at least a little evidence in support of the charge of "Sore Loserdom"?

Just asking.

That WSJ Op-ed doesn't seriously address the under...

2006-12-01T07:49:00.000-08:00

That WSJ Op-ed doesn't seriously address the undervote. It only says that it is not uncommon and may be the result of an ugly Repub primary. If that were the case then the undervotes would be spread accross all of the counties in the district and not concentrated in Sarasota county.

You and the WSJ are entitled to believe Dems are sore losers but the FL-13 election isn't evidence of that.

Ahh-hah!

2006-12-01T06:56:00.000-08:00

Ahh-hah!